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RELIABILITY MODEL ASSESSM ENT OF GRID-CONNECTED SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIC SYSTEM BASED ON M ONTE-CARLO

Haiying Wang 1,Ninghi Zhu 2, Xiaomin Bai 3,

2015 (4)    Direct Conversion of Solar Energy into Electrical Energy

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Haiying Wang 1,Ninghi Zhu 2, Xiaomin Bai 3, RELIABILITY MODEL ASSESSM ENT OF GRID-CONNECTED SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIC SYSTEM BASED ON M ONTE-CARLO

The rapid growth ofphotovoltaic PV energy utilization and the immense potential for future use dictate a need to seriously consider the reliability o f PV system. In this study, the comprehensive model to assess the reliability o f large-scale and grid-connected PV system was proposed, taking account o f weather condition as well as critical component failure probability. In addition, the sequential Monte-Carlo simulation was also established, combining with the developed model. And this analytical approach was successfully applied to evaluate the practical PV system in western area o f China. The result showed that the reliability increased as the system capacity increased. And the simulated value become more accurate when the basic model was modified by more factors, especially by weather condition. While for the fixed-capacity system, the reliability decreased periodically as the operation time prolonged, which was mainly caused by the PV modules and inverters failure probability. 

Huazhong university of science and technology, Wuhan, China,

CEPRI science and technology company, Beijing, China,

China electric power research institute, Beijing, China.

zhongtongboce@163.com

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